By Raphael Obasiohia, PIND Peace Champion

According to its latest Seasonal Climate Prediction, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has warned that Delta, Lagos, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom States could see between 250 and 290 rainy days in 2025. This places Delta among the states most at risk of prolonged flooding, with months of saturated soil and swollen waterways expected.

In Asaba, Delta State’s the floods are already a familiar sight. Viral social media memes tagged with the now-infamous soundtrack “Asaba Asaba, e don burst for Asaba” (here and here) have turned submerged cars and waterlogged roads into satirical content. Mechanics are jokingly hailed as the “luckiest” people in town, as breakdowns keep their workshops busy.

But the reality is far from funny for car owners like one resident who spent ₦300,000 repairing his vehicle after driving through knee-deep water. “I regret stepping out that very day,” he recalled at a roadside workshop.

A City Without Gutters Despite being a state capital, large parts of Asaba have no functional drainage systems. The city’s network is fragmented, with some neighborhoods relying solely on natural runoff into low-lying areas.

Many streets have no gutters, while others terminate abruptly without connecting to proper channels, leaving rainwater to pool on roads and seep into homes. Where drains do exist, they are often clogged with refuse due to poor waste disposal habits, turning them into stagnant, disease-prone pits instead of escape routes for floodwater.

“You can see a street without a single gutter, and if at all you see one, it ends at a point without proper channeling,” said a resident of Okpanam Road, one of the areas frequently hit by flash floods.

The situation is even worse for neighborhoods within the riverine areas, such as parts of Anwai, Oko, and Cable Point, which face dual threats: rain-induced flooding and backflow from the River Niger. When the River Niger swells, drainage outlets turn into reverse channels, pushing floodwater back into homes, stranding residents for days, and leaving a trail of damage behind.

A History of Devastation: 2022 and 2024 Flood Disasters
The scale of the challenge becomes clearer in the context of recent disasters. In October 2022, Nigeria experienced one of its most catastrophic floods in decades. Across the country, over 600 people died, more than 1.3 million were displaced, and hundreds of thousands of hectares of farmland were lost. In Delta State, communities like Infant Jesus, Oko, and Anwai were submerged. IDP camps sprang up in places such as Ogbe-Afor, and Ndokwa East alone saw more than 3,200 households displaced. In Udu Local Government Area, over 19 communities—including Emadadja, Ekrota, Ubogo, and Aladja—were underwater.

Two years later, in October 2024, flooding struck again, submerging at least 20 communities. Ndokwa East, Ndokwa West, Isoko North, and Isoko South LGAs were the worst hit. Roads became impassable, cutting communities off from aid. Farmers prematurely scrambled to harvest yams, cassava, and plantain before the waters claimed their fields.

Climate Change, Rising Waters, and Security Risks
Flood disasters in the Niger Delta are becoming more frequent and severe due to changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and tidal surges. Experts warn that without effective mitigation, the region faces worsening socio-economic and security consequences. These include outbreaks of waterborne diseases, mass internal displacement, and the collapse of local economies. Prolonged flooding could also disrupt schools and businesses, deepening poverty and potentially fueling criminal activity and insecurity in already fragile communities.
Government Efforts and Persistent Gaps                                                                            In July 2025, the Delta Capital Territory Development Agency launched a comprehensive flood control operation in Asaba aimed at clearing blocked drainages, desilting waterways, and promoting a cleaner, healthier environment. At the flag-off, Director-General Chief Patrick Ukah stressed the agency’s commitment to building a flood-resilient and sustainable capital, urging residents to avoid indiscriminate waste disposal and maintain proper environmental practices.

While the initiative has led to visible clearing of blocked gutters in parts of the city, critics argue that without long-term structural solutions, such as proper drainage planning, waste management enforcement, and riverbank fortifications, Asaba’s flooding woes will persist, especially with the high rainfall forecast.

A Foreseeable Emergency
NiMet’s forecast is less a warning than a certainty. Delta’s 2025 flood risk is not a question of “if” but “when.” With poor drainage, unchecked waste disposal, and the River Niger’s unpredictable surges, Asaba is bracing for one of its longest, wettest years yet. Online, the “ASABA ASABA” meme may keep trending, but for residents, the laughter fades quickly. Each downpour is a reminder that beneath the satire lies a slow-motion disaster that returns every rainy season, bigger and harder to ignore.